Stock Market Predictions Are Worthless

I am not sure what our fascination with predictions is all about.  Whether it is political elections, sports, or the financial markets, everyone seems to be willing to stop and listen to someone willing to make a prediction.  Rarely do we ever go back to evaluate how those predictions pan out?

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You Are Not A Contrarian

It seems like every investor (amateur or professional) bills themselves as a contrarian.  They will tell you that they tend to buy unloved or unwanted companies when they are trading for a great bargain.  The simple fact is that this is very hard.  The Motley Fool has a great article on this very topic.

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They’re Back: Revisiting Interest Rates

It has been a couple of months since we’ve addressed interest rates, and today we find that the 10-year Treasury bond (often considered the benchmark of bond yields) has hit 3% again.  With the recent economic data surprising to the upside, there is a possibility for rates to rise.

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The Stock Market Does Not Equal The Economy

The economic data coming out these last few weeks have been spectacular.  Whether it be employment, manufacturing, or consumer spending, the economy really seems to be on a roll.  Before you buy some stocks as an early Christmas present, it is important to remember that the economy is not the stock market.

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The Predictive Power (Or Lack Thereof) Of Stock Market Indicators

There is really no indicator that we know of that can predict stock market performance.  If there ever were, it would very quickly be arbitraged away since markets tend to be fairly efficient.  Merrill Lynch uses a metric they call the “Sell Side Indicator” to determine future stock performance.

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Fleecing Investors, When Will They Learn?

Several days ago, Bloomberg wrote a scathing article on Managed Futures Funds. These funds started to gain much more popularity after 2008. They tend to be non-correlated to the overall market, appealing to investors after losing over half their money in the stock market.

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Revisiting Gold

The number of calls we have received about gold has certainly diminished over the past several months as the yellow metal has lost over 25% of its value from the peak.  Here is a chart of the last few years.

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Never Ever Believe a Market Forecast

Market forecasts are essentially useless and cause more harm than good. We thought this chart from Societe Generate captured our thoughts nicely.

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Why Are Interest Rates So Important?

In the investment world, much of the talk over the past few weeks seems to be revolving around the spike in interest rates and what that means for the global financial markets. 

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