The Predictive Power (Or Lack Thereof) Of Stock Market Indicators

There is really no indicator that we know of that can predict stock market performance.  If there ever were, it would very quickly be arbitraged away since markets tend to be fairly efficient.  Merrill Lynch uses a metric they call the “Sell Side Indicator” to determine future stock performance.

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Fleecing Investors, When Will They Learn?

Several days ago, Bloomberg wrote a scathing article on Managed Futures Funds. These funds started to gain much more popularity after 2008. They tend to be non-correlated to the overall market, appealing to investors after losing over half their money in the stock market.

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Revisiting Gold

The number of calls we have received about gold has certainly diminished over the past several months as the yellow metal has lost over 25% of its value from the peak.  Here is a chart of the last few years.

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Never Ever Believe a Market Forecast

Market forecasts are essentially useless and cause more harm than good. We thought this chart from Societe Generate captured our thoughts nicely.

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Why Are Interest Rates So Important?

In the investment world, much of the talk over the past few weeks seems to be revolving around the spike in interest rates and what that means for the global financial markets. 

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Market Pundits Often Get It Wrong

With the US markets breaching their all-time highs, I have had more clients ask me when the correction is coming.  We’ve been through two crashes in the last 13 years, and the investor psyche is fragile.

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The US as a Percentage of the World Stock Market

Although investors favor US companies in the world stock market because they outperform their foreign counterparts, consider a few things.

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Where Has the Hedge Been in Hedge Funds

We are constantly reviewing the performance of various investment strategies.  Over the past couple of decades, the rise of hedge funds has been spectacular, and I thought it would be helpful if we dug into their performance at a much deeper level. 

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Does Active Management Work Better In Inefficient Markets?

Does active management really work better in inefficient markets where there is less information available? Let's review the data.

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